TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether a specific player accumulates varying levels of total yards through both rushing and receiving in an upcoming football game between two teams. The thresholds increase across different markets, offering multiple ways to evaluate the player's performance. Outcomes depend entirely on the player's combined yardage during the game.
The event evaluates MarShawn Lloyd's combined rushing and receiving yards in the Chicago vs Green Bay Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, across three sequential thresholds: 50+, 75+, and 100+ yards. For each threshold, if Lloyd achieves that specific yardage total or more, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly: if Lloyd is listed as active for the game but does not take a single snap, all markets settle at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once Lloyd takes at least one snap—regardless of whether any resulting plays are nullified by penalty—the markets resolve strictly based on the actual combined yards he records during the game. These rules ensure clarity in settlement, whether Lloyd participates minimally or extensively, and protect against post-snap nullifications affecting the outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to balance their risk, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the event draws nearer, you may see the odds on Kalshi converge with or diverge from traditional sportsbooks. It’s common to see prediction markets offer more accurate probabilities, especially closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the Chicago versus Green Bay player prop. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final combined rushing and receiving yardage totals for the players involved in the Chicago versus Green Bay game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official statistics released by the NFL, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will be able to view the final outcome and any relevant data on Kalshi following the event's completion.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Chicago or Green Bay teams would likely cause substantial movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing or running, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected announcements about player matchups or strategic changes by the coaching staff could also shift probabilities. Finally, significant betting activity or large volume trades on Kalshi itself can drive price fluctuations as traders react to new information or adjust their positions.