TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks receiving performance in an upcoming football game between two teams, with payouts tied to specific players' yardage achievements. Participants can bet on whether each player's receiving yards will meet certain conditions, with returns scaling based on actual yardage accumulated.
Each market operates as a scalar betting contract where Yes payouts are calculated at a fixed rate of $0.0025 per receiving yard accumulated by the named player during the specified Chicago vs Green Bay game on Oct 11, 2026. Payouts are capped at $1.00 per Yes contract, corresponding to a maximum of 400 receiving yards. The No contract payout is determined by subtracting the Yes payout from $1.00, ensuring the total return for both positions always equals $1.00. All markets share identical payout mechanics and constraints, with returns proportional to contract holdings. Examples provided illustrate how yardage translates to monetary returns: 80 yards yields a Yes payout of $0.20 and a No payout of $0.80, while 200 yards results in equal $0.50 payouts for both positions. Zero yards would fully favor the No position at $1.00. The markets are independent but follow uniform structural rules.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. Often, you’ll find that prediction markets are more accurate than sportsbook odds, especially closer to the event date, as they aggregate a wider range of information and perspectives. However, sportsbook odds may initially move more quickly to breaking news, while this market tends to react more steadily.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage thresholds for the players involved in the Chicago vs Green Bay game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics from the Chicago vs Green Bay game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the officially recorded receiving yards for each player, as determined by the NFL. The specific yardage thresholds for each contract in the market will then be compared to the official stats to determine winning and losing contracts. No further information is available regarding the exact resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers on both the Chicago and Green Bay teams would be significant, as would changes in weather forecasts, which could affect passing game strategies. Unexpected news regarding quarterback performance or coaching decisions could also shift expectations. Finally, any late-breaking information about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in the market prices as traders react to the new data and reassess the probabilities of different outcomes.