TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a quarterback in a specific football game, focusing on whether he achieves various levels of passing yardage. It allows participants to speculate on how effectively the player will perform in terms of passing during the match.
The event evaluates whether Jordan Love achieves specified passing yard thresholds in the Chicago vs Green Bay Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct yardage benchmark, ranging from 150 to 375 yards. If Love meets or exceeds the designated yardage in any given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule states that if Love is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once Love takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the outcome is determined solely by the actual passing yards recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistency in resolution criteria for each passing yard threshold.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market represents the collective beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in how each assesses the probability of a particular outcome. It’s common to see this market incorporate information and adjust more rapidly to news than sportsbook odds, especially as the event draws closer.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the final passing yards total. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded, and inaccurate ones result in losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly efficient and informative market.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yards total from the Chicago versus Green Bay game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contracts. It’s important to note that any adjustments or corrections made by the NFL to the official statistics will be reflected in the final resolution of this market. Traders should monitor official NFL sources for the most accurate data.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. News regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause substantial movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict adverse conditions for passing, could also shift expectations. Unexpected reports about team strategies or coaching decisions could influence trader sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking news related to the overall health or availability of players involved in the game could trigger significant price fluctuations in this market.