TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:47 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of quarterbacks Jordan Love and Tyson Bagent in a specific football game between Chicago and Green Bay. They focus on the number of passing touchdowns each quarterback achieves during the match, offering different thresholds for success.
All markets resolve based on the number of passing touchdowns recorded by the respective quarterback—Jordan Love or Tyson Bagent—in the Chicago vs Green Bay Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. For any market, if the designated quarterback is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the quarterback takes at least one snap, regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty, the market resolves according to the actual passing touchdowns recorded during the game. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., 1+, 2+, 3+, or 4+ passing touchdowns), and if the quarterback meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. These rules apply independently to each quarterback and each threshold, allowing for multiple markets to resolve simultaneously based on the same game performance.
Typically, prediction market odds, like those found on Kalshi, reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly, potentially offering value to informed bettors. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous, real-time auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total passing touchdowns. The price of each contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective forecast. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new data and provide a forward-looking estimate of the event's outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be sourced from widely recognized sports data providers. Traders will be able to see the final result and their payout amounts shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also move the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Even public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market.