TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:42 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing attempts made by specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between Chicago and Green Bay. It focuses on whether predetermined thresholds of passing attempts are met by either starting or backup quarterbacks, providing insight into potential game strategies and player usage.
All markets resolve based on the total passing attempts recorded by specified quarterbacks during the Chicago vs Green Bay Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. For each market, if the named quarterback records the specified number of passing attempts or more, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that snap is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly based on the actual number of passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply individually to each market and quarterback, allowing for distinct outcomes depending on which player is under consideration and the threshold set for their passing attempts.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or breaking news. Analyzing these differences can be insightful, though it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and neither guarantees accuracy.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain number of passing attempts, the price increases, and vice-versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect evolving expectations about the game. The market depth indicates how much volume is available at different price points, giving traders insight into potential price movements.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing attempts by both teams during the game will be used to determine the winning contracts. It’s important to note that any adjustments or official rulings regarding the game's statistics will be considered in the resolution process. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game statistics to understand how this market will settle.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly those predicting adverse conditions, could also influence the number of passing attempts. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis from reputable sports analysts could sway trader sentiment and affect the price of contracts in this market.