TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:20 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on individual player performance in an upcoming football game between Chicago and Green Bay. Each contract's value depends on how many fantasy points a specific player scores during the match, with payouts scaling linearly based on the points accumulated.
Each market determines payouts based on the Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy points scored by a designated player in the specified Chicago vs Green Bay game. For each contract, the Yes payout is calculated at $0.01 per fantasy point, rounded to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capped between $0.00 and $1.00. The No payout is set as $1.00 minus the Yes payout. If a player does not receive a fantasy-point total from Sleeper for the week, they are considered to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in a Yes payout of $0.00 and a No payout of $1.00. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, and Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the NFL.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the event draws nearer, you may see the odds on Kalshi converge or diverge from sportsbook odds. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform traditional sportsbooks in accuracy, especially when considering the collective intelligence at play.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As traders exchange positions, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of the event's likelihood. The more traders believe an outcome will happen, the higher the contract price will climb, and vice versa. This creates a fluid and responsive pricing system based on collective prediction.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Chicago vs Green Bay game, specifically the Fantasy Ladder score as determined by the official scoring rules. The platform will then determine the winning contract based on this verified result. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout equivalent to the contract's final price, less any fees. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Chicago or Green Bay teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, particularly if they affect the game's playing surface, could also move the market. Furthermore, major shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or breaking news, could influence trading activity. Finally, any late-breaking information about team strategies or coaching decisions could prompt traders to reassess their positions, leading to price adjustments on Kalshi.