TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of key running backs in an upcoming football game between Chicago and Atlanta. Participants can bet on whether each player will exceed a certain payout threshold based on their rushing yards. The outcome depends directly on the players' statistical achievements during the game.
The event comprises two parallel scalar markets evaluating rushing yard performance by Bijan Robinson and D'Andre Swift in the Chicago vs Atlanta game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market features Yes and No contracts: Yes pays $0.0025 per rushing yard recorded, capped at $1.00 (equivalent to 400 yards), while No pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to contract positions, with examples illustrating how varying yardage totals translate to specific payouts—for instance, 80 yards yields $0.20 Yes and $0.80 No, while zero yards results in $0.00 Yes and $1.00 No. Both markets operate independently, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the NFL, noting that all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. Often, you’ll find that prediction markets are more accurate than sportsbook lines, especially when there’s significant public interest and trading volume. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities and can be influenced by various factors, including news and injuries.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence price discovery, with larger volumes generally leading to more stable and accurate pricing. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard statistics from the Chicago versus Atlanta NFL game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yard totals for each team will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either the Chicago or Atlanta teams would likely cause substantial price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict inclement conditions, could also impact the expected rushing yard totals. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price changes in this market.