TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:49 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions achieved by various players in an upcoming NFL game between Chicago and Atlanta. Participants bet on whether each specified player will reach certain reception thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance.
Each market operates as a scalar betting contract focused on the number of receptions recorded by a specific player during the designated NFL game. For every 'Yes' contract, the payout is calculated at $0.05 per reception, up to a maximum of $1.00, effectively capping payable receptions at 20. The 'No' contract payout is determined by subtracting the 'Yes' payout from $1.00, ensuring the total return for both positions always equals $1.00. Payouts are directly proportional to the holder's position size, meaning larger investments receive correspondingly larger absolute payouts while maintaining the same percentage return as smaller investments. Examples provided illustrate how different reception totals translate to specific payout values for both 'Yes' and 'No' positions, such as 8 receptions yielding $0.40 for 'Yes' and $0.60 for 'No', or zero receptions resulting in $0.00 for 'Yes' and $1.00 for 'No'. All markets are independent, each resolving solely based on the reception count of its specified player, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the NFL or ownership of related trademarks and logos.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. You may find that this market initially aligns with sportsbook odds, but diverges as new information becomes available or as traders identify mispricings. Polls and analysts’ predictions can also offer a comparison point, but they don’t have the same financial incentive for accuracy as participants in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of potential results. Traders are constantly evaluating player matchups, injury reports, and other factors to inform their trading decisions, which ultimately drive the market prices.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official NFL statistics for receptions will be used to determine the winning contracts. The market will settle based on the actual number of receptions achieved by the players involved in the market. It’s important to note that the official NFL data is the final authority for determining the outcome of this market, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team offensive strategies, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected starting lineup announcements or reports about a player’s health status are likely to cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, significant performance in prior games – either positive or negative – can influence expectations and move the market. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the teams involved is crucial for understanding potential market movements.