TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by various players in a specific football game between Chicago and Atlanta. Participants can bet on whether each player's reception count will meet certain thresholds, with payouts varying based on the exact number of receptions.
The event consists of multiple scalar markets, each focusing on a different player’s receptions in the Chicago vs Atlanta Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. For each player market, Yes contracts pay out according to a predefined schedule based on the number of receptions the player achieves, with payouts calculated using the formula floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where s represents the official receptions. The maximum payout for Yes contracts is $1.00. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Each market resolves to Yes if the player achieves at least one reception, with the specific payout determined by the reception count. The structure ensures that payouts increase non-linearly with the number of receptions, incentivizing predictions of higher performance.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and perspectives from many traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the event approaches, you may see the prediction market odds converge or diverge from sportsbook odds depending on how that information is interpreted by both groups. It's common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities than traditional betting markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can set their own bid and ask prices, creating a dynamic market where prices fluctuate based on supply and demand. The current price represents the cost to own one unit of a particular outcome in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final reception totals for the specified players in the Chicago versus Atlanta game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will serve as the basis for determining the winning contracts. The market will settle to 100 for the outcome that corresponds to the actual number of receptions achieved, and 0 for all other outcomes. Traders should monitor official NFL sources for the final statistics to understand when the market will officially resolve.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Chicago or Atlanta teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that might affect passing game strategies, could also move the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in player roles could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, late-breaking news about player availability or performance expectations, even rumors, can all contribute to price movements in this market leading up to Oct 18, 2026.