TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks specific player performance metrics in an upcoming professional football game. It focuses on whether certain athletes achieve predetermined receiving yard thresholds during the match. The outcomes reflect individual player production rather than team results.
All markets are designated as protected contracts, meaning they resolve based on fair price adjustments if a player participates in the first half but not afterward, unless the required yardage is met. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count toward participation requirements. Players who never participate are subject to fair price non-participation rules. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with above or at-least payout criteria, and all statistics include overtime periods. The event consistently uses full-game receiving yards for resolution, with Kalshi explicitly stating no official affiliation with the governing league.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as an event approaches. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, but can be influenced by biases or attempts to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows anyone to participate and express their view, leading to a potentially more informed price. While sportsbooks may offer similar markets, the dynamic pricing mechanism of a prediction market can reveal different insights than static odds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total receiving yards. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic and efficient pricing mechanism. As more volume is traded, the prices tend to converge towards a more accurate representation of the true probability, making it a valuable tool for forecasting.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final receiving yardage totals for the specified players are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics from the NFL will be used to determine the winning contract. The market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the actual total receiving yards achieved. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand how their positions will be settled. It’s important to note that the resolution is based on verified data, not preliminary reports.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Chicago or Atlanta teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict adverse conditions like heavy rain or strong winds, could also move the market, as these conditions typically affect passing games. Furthermore, any updates on the opposing defenses, such as key player absences or changes in strategy, could influence traders' expectations and shift the prices in this market.