TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks receiving performance in an upcoming football game, offering payouts based on how many yards specific players accumulate. The structure incentivizes predicting both the occurrence and magnitude of success for individual participants in the contest.
Each market evaluates player receiving yards in the specified game, with payouts determined by a tiered schedule that increases with every 10-yard increment. The Yes payout follows a cubic scaling formula based on the official receiving yards achieved, capped at $1.00 for 200 or more yards. No contracts receive the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout. Negative yardage results in a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts. All markets resolve to Yes upon completion, regardless of individual performance outcomes.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in how each assesses the probabilities. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available and traders react to it. Analyzing these differences can be a valuable exercise for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage totals, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a higher total, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective probability assessment of that specific outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates new information and adjusts probabilities accordingly, providing a real-time gauge of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics from the NFL game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yardage totals for players in the Chicago versus Atlanta game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the official NFL data, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders will be able to view the final results and payouts on Kalshi following the completion of the game and verification of the data.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries to key receivers on either the Chicago or Atlanta teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected news about quarterback performance or coaching strategies could also shift expectations. Finally, large-volume trades from informed participants could signal new information or a change in sentiment, causing prices to adjust rapidly. Monitoring these signals is crucial for understanding potential market movements.