TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 3:56 PM EST
Kalshi
The market assesses whether Michael Penix Jr. will achieve different numbers of passing touchdowns in the same Chicago versus Atlanta football game. Resolution hinges entirely on the count of touchdowns he throws, regardless of game context or other factors.
All markets resolve based on Michael Penix Jr.'s passing touchdowns in the specified game. If he is active but never takes a snap, markets settle to the fair market price before kickoff. Once he takes at least one snap—even if nullified by penalty—the markets settle based solely on the number of passing touchdowns he records during the game.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to balance their risk, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. Over time, prediction market prices often become more accurate forecasts than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as more information becomes available and trading volume increases. However, sportsbook odds can still be a useful point of comparison when evaluating this market.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored by each quarterback will be used to determine the winning contracts. Official game statistics from the NFL will serve as the basis for verifying the outcome. Traders will be able to see the results clearly displayed on Kalshi once the resolution process is complete, and payouts will be processed accordingly based on the final outcome of the game.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players, particularly the quarterbacks or their receiving corps, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, especially conditions expected to favor either the passing or running game, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or adjustments to the game plan could shift market sentiment. Finally, public perception and analysis from sports commentators and analysts can also contribute to movements in this market.