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2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 2:12 PM EST
Kalshi
The market tracks the Chicago vs Atlanta Professional Football game scheduled for Oct 18, 2026, focusing exclusively on Michael Penix Jr.'s passing completions. Outcomes are determined by whether he reaches certain completion milestones during the match.
If Michael Penix Jr. records 16+ passing completions in the Chicago vs Atlanta Professional Football game originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Penix Jr. records 21+ passing completions in the Chicago vs Atlanta Professional Football game originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Penix Jr. records 26+ passing completions in the Chicago vs Atlanta Professional Football game originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own research and insights. As more information becomes available and opinions converge, the prices in this market may align more closely with sportsbook odds, or they may diverge if traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It’s common to see differences, especially before significant events or breaking news.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing completions. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. The more a particular outcome is believed to be likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb, and vice versa. This creates a fluid and responsive pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved during the Chicago versus Atlanta game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official game statistics, as reported by a reputable sports data source, will serve as the basis for resolution. Traders will be able to see the final result and the payout of their contracts shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released. This ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market leading up to resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments could influence traders’ expectations. Public sentiment, as reflected in expert analysis and social media discussions, can also play a role in driving price fluctuations in this market.