TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 3:29 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how often a specific quarterback attempts passes during a football game between Chicago and Atlanta. The outcomes depend on whether the player reaches certain attempt thresholds. The rules account for scenarios where the player might not play at all.
The markets resolve based on whether Michael Penix Jr. records a specified number of passing attempts (26+, 31+, or 36+) in the Chicago vs Atlanta Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 18, 2026. If Penix Jr. is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once Penix Jr. takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual number of passing attempts he records during the game. These provisions ensure fair resolution even when a player’s participation is limited or uncertain prior to or during the game.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess the probability of an event occurring. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, risk assessments, and the influence of public opinion. If you find significant differences between the odds on Kalshi and those offered by sportsbooks, it might indicate that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the likelihood of a particular outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the total passing attempts. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market depth and trading activity indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing attempts total from the Chicago versus Atlanta game will be used to determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future markets based on the verified results.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly those predicting adverse conditions, could also shift expectations regarding passing volume. Furthermore, late-breaking reports about offensive or defensive strategies employed by either team could cause traders to reassess their predictions and adjust their positions accordingly, leading to volatility in this market.