TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:22 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Chicago or Atlanta in the second half of their football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the designated Chicago vs Atlanta Pro Football game. For markets where Chicago is the favored team to win by a specified margin, the outcome is determined by whether Chicago's second-half points exceed Atlanta's by more than the stated threshold. Conversely, for markets where Atlanta is the favored team, the resolution depends on Atlanta's second-half points surpassing Chicago's by more than the specified margin. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the second half and overtime periods, disregarding any points from the first half. The governing body's official records will be used to verify the final scores and determine resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and risk assessment, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts on Kalshi and at a sportsbook. However, it’s important to note that sportsbooks and prediction markets both aim to accurately forecast the outcome, and their odds often converge as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 2nd half spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the most likely outcome for the Chicago versus Atlanta game’s second half.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the second half of the Chicago versus Atlanta game will be used to determine winning and losing contracts. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and data sources.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries or changes to starting lineups for either the Chicago or Atlanta teams would likely have a significant impact. Game-day reports about player health or strategic adjustments could also shift market sentiment. Additionally, broader NBA news, such as coaching changes or team performance trends, might indirectly affect trading activity. Unexpected events during the first half of the game could also cause a rapid adjustment in the price of contracts for the second half.