TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 10:36 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Chicago Fire will win their professional MLS soccer game against Vancouver. Currently, Kalshi gives Chicago Fire a 59.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 26.0%. The market will resolve based on the result of the game as reported by official sources, specifically whether Chicago Fire wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time – excluding any extra time or penalties. Keep a close eye on the match itself, as the outcome will be determined on October 6, 2026, the originally scheduled date for the Chicago Fire vs Vancouver game.
The event resolves based on the result of the Chicago Fire vs Vancouver professional MLS soccer game scheduled for October 6, 2026, determined after 90 minutes of play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for Chicago Fire, a win for Vancouver, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform’s rules. The platform explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the collective beliefs of many traders. As new information becomes available – such as team injuries or changes in form – the prediction market can adjust more rapidly than traditional sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, with this market sometimes offering more accurate probabilities as the event approaches, especially if there's significant public disagreement with the sportsbook's initial assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – a win for Chicago Fire, a win for Vancouver, or a draw – and the prices of these contracts determine the implied probabilities. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. Higher prices indicate a greater perceived chance of success, while lower prices suggest a lower probability. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards a fair value based on the collective information available.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Chicago Fire vs Vancouver match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the relevant sporting authority. The winning outcome in this market will correspond to the actual result of the game – either a Chicago Fire win, a Vancouver win, or a draw. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for losing outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either the Chicago Fire or Vancouver would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in team form, such as a string of recent wins or losses, could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions at the match venue could play a role, as could any significant tactical changes announced by either team’s coach. Even public opinion, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price movements in this market.