TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 10:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Chicago Fire and Philadelphia, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different margins of victory in the Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia professional MLS soccer match scheduled for October 14, 2026. Four distinct outcome thresholds are considered: Chicago Fire winning by more than 2.5 goals, Chicago Fire winning by more than 1.5 goals, Philadelphia winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Philadelphia winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based exclusively on the final score after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty shootout results. Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified team achieves the corresponding goal differential victory. The event operates independently of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows anyone to trade based on their own insights, leading to odds that can diverge from sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to breaking news or changes in team conditions than traditional sportsbooks, offering a potentially more dynamic assessment of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia match. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the event’s potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by official results published by the league following the conclusion of the Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia match. The market will settle to 100 if the spread is as predicted, and to 0 if it is not. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect outcome will lose their stake. This resolution process ensures a transparent and objective outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the Oct 15, 2026 resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either the Chicago Fire or Philadelphia would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups or tactical approaches could also shift the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate a change in expectations and drive price fluctuations in this market.