TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the total points scored by both the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers during the third quarter of their upcoming football game. Each market has a different threshold for the combined points that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered a success.
These markets evaluate whether the combined points scored by the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers during the third quarter of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026, exceed specified thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different point total threshold (ranging from 3.5 to 24.5 points). The outcome is determined solely by the points scored during the third quarter of play, with all thresholds assessed independently. If the total points scored in that quarter surpass the threshold designated for a particular market, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The markets are distinct, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately, allowing for multiple markets to resolve differently based on the actual point total.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it might indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the 3rd quarter total. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect changing expectations. The current price indicates what a trader would pay to own a contract that pays out if the 3rd quarter total falls within a specific range.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official total points scored in the 3rd quarter of the Bears-Packers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score will be sourced from official game statistics, and the market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the outcome based on the contract they held. It’s important to monitor the game and official results to understand how this market will settle.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Bears or the Packers would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect scoring, could also move the market. Additionally, in-game performance during the first and second quarters, such as dominant offensive drives or defensive stops, could shift expectations and alter the odds as traders react to the unfolding events.