TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:10 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will win by a specific margin in the second half of an upcoming football game, including any overtime periods. The outcomes depend solely on the point differential during the latter half of play, regardless of the overall game result.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the specified Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different point threshold, with outcomes determined exclusively by points scored during this period. If the designated team achieves a win by exceeding their respective threshold—whether Chicago Bears winning by more than a set number of points or Green Bay Packers winning by more than another set number—the market resolves to 'Yes.' Otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' All markets operate independently, and only second-half points contribute to resolution, irrespective of the first-half or full-game results.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks for contracts representing different point spreads. The price of a contract reflects the probability that the actual second-half spread will fall on the corresponding side. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the true probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are setting the odds based on their own analysis of team performance, injuries, and other relevant factors, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the game’s potential outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final second-half spread of the game between the Bears and the Packers will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting the correct side of the spread will settle at 100, while those predicting the incorrect side will settle at 0. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Bears or the Packers would likely cause a shift in the odds. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected scoring and therefore the spread. Major coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, perhaps driven by expert analysis or late-breaking news, could influence trading activity and price discovery.