TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:50 PM EST
Kalshi
The same two teams will compete again, and this market will determine which side scores more points specifically in the first quarter of the matchup, with overtime included if it occurs.
Null - only one primary rule applies: the market resolves based on which team scores the most points in the first quarter (including overtime) of the Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. If both teams score the same amount of points, the market resolves as a tie.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows individuals to express their own beliefs, which can lead to odds that diverge from traditional sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when there’s strong public sentiment or uncertainty surrounding the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a specific outcome. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the perceived chance of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to news, analysis, and each other’s activity, creating a real-time assessment of probabilities. This differs from fixed-odds betting, as the price is determined by supply and demand.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the first quarter is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the league, ensuring transparency and accuracy. The platform will then determine which contracts payout based on the actual first quarter winner, and payouts will be distributed to contract holders accordingly. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand any potential factors that might influence the final result.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Bears or the Packers would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team lineups could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, any significant public endorsements or analysis from respected sports commentators could sway trader opinion and affect the price of contracts in this market.