TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for the Chicago Bears versus the Green Bay Packers in the first half of their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that determines whether the outcome is considered a success or failure.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential in the first half of the designated Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. For markets where the Chicago Bears are the favored team to win by a specified margin, resolution occurs only if the Bears' lead exceeds the stated point threshold at the end of the first half. Conversely, for markets where the Green Bay Packers are the favored team, resolution requires the Packers to win by more than the specified margin within the same timeframe. No points scored in the second half or overtime affect any market outcomes. All markets are independent, meaning each resolves separately according to its unique point differential requirement.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s prices are driven purely by supply and demand from traders who are incentivized to be accurate. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook’s line is incorrect, the price on Kalshi will move in the opposite direction. This can sometimes lead to better odds for informed bettors compared to traditional sportsbooks, but it’s not always the case.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first half. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price movements. Essentially, the market price is a real-time aggregate of everyone’s predictions about the Bears-Packers first half spread.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first half spread of the Bears-Packers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the relevant sporting authority. Traders who correctly predicted the first half spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of resolution. The market will then close, and all outstanding contracts will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Bears or the Packers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift trader sentiment. Even public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, may contribute to price fluctuations in this market.