TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 2:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an English Premier League soccer match between Chelsea and Tottenham, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential, reflecting the competitive balance and performance in the match. The resolution depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Chelsea or Tottenham wins the match originally scheduled for October 24, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Four distinct outcomes are evaluated: Chelsea winning by more than 2.5 goals, Chelsea winning by more than 1.5 goals, Tottenham winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Tottenham winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes.' The resolution exclusively considers the standard match duration, disregarding any extra time or penalty phases. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price of that outcome will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform traditional sportsbooks in accuracy, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Chelsea vs Tottenham match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic creates a market-driven forecast that can be quite different from pre-event analysis.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Chelsea vs Tottenham match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread achieved in the game, as reported by official sports data providers. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not. The precise details of the spread are defined within the market contract on Kalshi.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 24, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Chelsea or Tottenham would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news related to team morale or off-field issues could also contribute to movement in this market. Monitoring these signals can help you understand how the market is reacting to new information.