TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 10:49 AM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between Chelsea FC and Manchester United FC, scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Chelsea FC" if Chelsea FC are the first to score in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). This market will resolve to "Manchester United FC" if Manchester United FC are the first to score in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). If neither team scores in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time), this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to goals scored within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between Chelsea FC and Manchester United FC, scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Chelsea FC" if Chelsea FC are the first to score in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). This market will resolve to "Manchester United FC" if Manchester United FC are the first to score in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). If neither team scores in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time), this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to goals scored within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, aiming to profit regardless of the outcome. This market, driven by the wisdom of the crowd on Polymarket, tends to reflect more purely the probability of an event occurring, as traders are incentivized to bet accurately. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on expert analysis, this market dynamically adjusts based on the collective predictions of participants, potentially revealing discrepancies in perceived probabilities.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each possible outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular team scoring first, the price of those shares increases, and the implied probability rises accordingly. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined entirely by supply and demand from traders on the platform, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event’s likelihood.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by which team – Chelsea or Manchester United – scores the first goal in the first half of the match. The official match records will serve as the basis for verifying the result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome of the first half.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Late-breaking news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Chelsea or Manchester United would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team formations or tactical approaches announced before the match could also move the market. Even public sentiment, reflected in pre-match analysis and commentary, could sway traders' opinions. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role, potentially favoring one team’s playing style over the other.