TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 9:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an MLS soccer match between Charlotte and Dallas, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different margin-of-victory thresholds for the Charlotte versus Dallas MLS soccer match scheduled for October 10, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered: Charlotte winning by more than 2.5 goals, Charlotte winning by more than 1.5 goals, Dallas winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Dallas winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based exclusively on the final score after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty shootout results. Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified team achieves the corresponding goal-differential threshold; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The event operates independently of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook line is inaccurate, they can move the price on Kalshi to reflect their collective view. This can sometimes lead to more accurate probabilities, though discrepancies can occur due to differing information or risk appetites.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular spread, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, meaning the price will fluctuate as new information and opinions emerge. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread established by official sources will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The winning contracts will correspond to the actual point difference between the final scores of Charlotte and Dallas. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will forfeit their investment. The resolution will reflect the official result of the game.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or coaching strategies could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected performance from key players in recent games, or even weather forecasts impacting playing conditions, can all contribute to price movements. Public sentiment, as reflected in sports news and analysis, can also play a role, as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions accordingly. Major shifts in betting patterns at sportsbooks could also influence trading activity on Kalshi.