TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 8:05 PM EST
Kalshi
The spread markets will evaluate whether Charleston wins by a margin exceeding specified goal differences, or if Louisville City secures a dominant victory, all within regular time.
These spread markets determine whether Charleston wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, or whether Louisville City wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, in the USL Championship game scheduled for Oct 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Each market has a specific threshold for the winning margin required to resolve as 'Yes'. If Charleston’s victory margin exceeds the specified threshold for either of its markets, those markets resolve to 'Yes'. Similarly, if Louisville City’s victory margin exceeds its specified threshold, those markets resolve to 'Yes'. If the margin does not meet or exceed the threshold, the market resolves to 'No'. All markets are evaluated independently based on the final score after regular time.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing or overvaluing a particular outcome, the price on Kalshi will adjust accordingly. This can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. It's common to see discrepancies, but these often narrow as the event draws nearer.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. A higher price indicates lower probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations in real-time, providing a forward-looking assessment of the event's potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total number of goals scored in the Charleston vs Louisville City match will be used to determine the winning contract. Official sources will be consulted to verify the final score, and the market will settle based on that verified result. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct total goals will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their stake. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Charleston or Louisville City would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if adverse conditions are expected, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, team form leading up to the match, tactical announcements from the managers, and even public sentiment expressed through social media could all contribute to shifts in the market price. Unexpected lineup changes announced shortly before kickoff could also trigger substantial price adjustments as traders react to the new information.