TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 8:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams competing in a major league. The result is determined by the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. Markets will adjust fairly if the match is significantly delayed or canceled.
The event covers a professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 12, 2026, between Chapecoense and Paranaense. Three distinct markets resolve based on the game's outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time: one for a Chapecoense win, one for a Paranaense win, and one for a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. Should the game be canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. The event explicitly excludes extra time and penalty shootout results from its resolution criteria.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as team news or weather forecasts – the odds on Kalshi may move closer to, or further away from, those found at sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early in the market’s life.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing possible outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their own analysis and expectations, and the market price fluctuates as new information emerges and trading activity changes. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on the event.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Chapecoense vs Paranaense match, as reported by a widely recognized sports data provider. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their stake. The final result will be determined by the official match statistics.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Chapecoense or Paranaense would likely cause the odds to shift. Unexpected changes in team form, coaching decisions, or even weather conditions leading up to the match could also influence trading activity. Major announcements related to the teams’ strategies or potential lineup changes will likely move the market, as will any significant public sentiment shifts reflected in media coverage.