TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 8:07 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between CF Os Belenenses and FC Arouca, scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "CF Os Belenenses" if CF Os Belenenses are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "FC Arouca" if FC Arouca are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between CF Os Belenenses and FC Arouca, scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "CF Os Belenenses" if CF Os Belenenses are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "FC Arouca" if FC Arouca are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a margin for profit. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing a particular outcome, the prediction market odds will likely move in the opposite direction, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of the true probability.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a specific team scoring first, the price of those shares increases, and the implied probability rises accordingly. This creates a dynamic and responsive market that attempts to accurately forecast the event's outcome based on collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team that is officially recorded as scoring the first goal in the CF Os Belenenses vs. FC Arouca match will determine the winning outcome. The official match records will be used to verify the result. The resolution will be based on the official game data and will not rely on subjective interpretations or opinions.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding team lineups, injuries to key players, or changes in coaching strategies could significantly shift the perceived probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even pre-match analysis from reputable sports commentators, could also impact trading volume and price movements. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants could create short-term volatility, as others react to their actions and reassess their own predictions.