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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Cerro Largo and Albion in the Uruguay Primera Division. The result will be determined after the full 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. The market will reflect whether one team secures a victory or if the game concludes in a draw.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Cerro Largo vs Albion professional Uruguay Primera Division soccer match scheduled for October 11, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Cerro Largo wins, the 'Cerro Largo' market resolves to Yes. If Albion wins, the 'Albion' market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks, logos, and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the collective beliefs of many traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. If a significant difference exists between the two, it may present an opportunity for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from the price difference. However, it’s important to note that both represent probabilities of an outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to that outcome. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific result, the price increases, and the implied probability of that outcome rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate predictions may incur losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards the true probability of the event.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Cerro Largo vs Albion match as reported by a trusted sports data source. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how their positions will be settled. The platform ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player suspensions could impact the perceived probabilities. Additionally, weather conditions on match day, or even pre-match analysis from respected sports commentators, could influence trader sentiment. Major shifts in public opinion, reflected in betting patterns or social media discussions, could also drive price movements. Unexpected announcements related to team strategy or player form could also cause the market to react quickly.