TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 5:42 PM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on the margin of victory in the same soccer match, evaluating whether either team wins by a sufficient number of goals. The result hinges on the difference in scores meeting or exceeding specific margins for each team.
This event assesses whether Ceara or Juventude RS wins the match by exceeding specified goal margins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Two sets of markets exist: one for Ceara winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, and another for Juventude RS winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. A market resolves to Yes if the winning team’s victory margin surpasses the specified threshold; otherwise, it resolves to No. As with the total goals event, Kalshi expressly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain owned by their respective parties.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likely outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction market prices move independently of sportsbook odds, providing a different perspective on the probability of various results.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice-versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the traders participating in this market, and can change rapidly based on new information or shifts in sentiment surrounding the Ceara vs Juventude match.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Ceara vs Juventude match as reported by a trusted sports data provider. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand potential catalysts that could influence the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 17, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Ceara or Juventude could significantly shift expectations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions leading up to the match could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about player availability, coaching changes, or even perceived momentum shifts can all contribute to price fluctuations in this market, reflecting the evolving perceptions of traders.