TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 9:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Ceara and Goias, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The contest is part of the Brasileiro Serie B league and follows standard match timing rules.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Ceara or Goias wins the match. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Ceara winning by more than 2.5 goals, Ceara winning by more than 1.5 goals, Goias winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Goias winning by more than 2.5 goals. The match must conclude within the regular 90 minutes plus any stoppage time; extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration. The resolution hinges solely on the final score after normal time, with each threshold representing a separate condition for a 'Yes' outcome. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to express their own probabilities. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price on Kalshi will move accordingly. This can lead to prediction market odds being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly early on, as the market aggregates diverse perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the spread. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are collectively willing to pay or receive for a contract, essentially representing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each result in the Ceara vs Goias match.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread for the Ceara vs Goias match, as determined by official sources, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout based on the market price at the time of resolution. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on publicly available data, ensuring a fair and accurate outcome for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 28, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or shifts in coaching strategies for either Ceara or Goias could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-game analysis from respected sports commentators could also cause price movements. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price changes, as traders react to perceived information or shifts in market opinion. Monitoring these signals is key to understanding potential market fluctuations.