TOTAL VOLUME:
$93.4b
24H VOL:
$248,131,524
24H TRANSACTIONS:
895,496,382
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,100,731,277
787,063
Markets across
13,710
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
903
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
46%
VS.
Kalshi:
54%
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? Odds & Prediction Markets
13%
chance
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether the CDC will issue a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" warning for any disease before the end of 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of a Level 4 warning being issued stands at 24.0%. Resolution will be determined by the CDC's official Travel Health Notices page, with credible reporting used as a secondary source. Watch for disease outbreaks or public health emergencies that could trigger such a designation before December 31, 2026.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this event is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability that the CDC issues a Level 4 warning by the end date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing "Yes" (warning issued) and "No" (warning not issued) outcomes. The current market price reflects the collective assessment of all participants and is updated continuously as new trades execute. Price discovery on Polymarket is driven by order flow, news events, and evolving epidemiological conditions that may trigger or prevent a Level 4 warning before Dec 31, 2026.
The market resolves on Dec 31, 2026, marking the final deadline for the CDC to issue a Level 4 travel health warning. Resolution is determined by whether an official Level 4 warning has been issued by that date. The outcome is binary: either the CDC has issued such a warning (resolving "Yes") or it has not (resolving "No"). Traders should monitor CDC travel advisories and official public health announcements throughout the event window to track developments that could influence the final outcome.
Key catalysts include emergence of new infectious disease outbreaks, rapid spread of existing pathogens, significant increases in severe illness or mortality in specific regions, and CDC assessments of transmission risk. Political or policy changes affecting travel restrictions, international health crises, and statements from CDC leadership can also shift market odds. Real-time epidemiological data releases, WHO alerts, and media coverage of health threats typically drive price volatility. Traders should monitor disease surveillance reports, CDC website updates, and global health news to anticipate movements in the probability of a Level 4 warning by year-end.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.