TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 9:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the CD Recoleta vs Libertad professional soccer game, originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, will end in a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Currently, “Tie is the result” is trading at 43.0% on Kalshi, while “Libertad wins” is at 37.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the game as reported by the official source. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the resolution will be determined by the result of the game played on October 3, 2026, and will be finalized by the resolution date of October 4, 2026.
The market resolves based solely on the result of the CD Recoleta vs Libertad professional APF Division de Honor soccer game scheduled for October 3, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A win for CD Recoleta resolves the "CD Recoleta" market to Yes; a win for Libertad resolves the "Libertad" market to Yes; and a tie resolves the "Tie" market to Yes. Extra time or penalty shootout results are excluded from consideration. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price according to the rules. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. Therefore, discrepancies can arise due to differing information or perspectives. It’s common to see prediction market probabilities shift as new information emerges or as more traders participate, potentially leading to odds that diverge from initial sportsbook offerings. Examining these differences can reveal where the crowd disagrees with professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the CD Recoleta vs Libertad match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders submit bids and asks, and the market price adjusts based on supply and demand. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will fluctuate, providing a real-time indication of the perceived likelihood of each result. The current price represents the cost to take a position on a specific outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the CD Recoleta vs Libertad match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The market will determine which outcome—a win for CD Recoleta, a win for Libertad, or a draw—actually occurred. Once the official result is available, the contracts will be settled accordingly, and traders will receive or pay out based on their positions in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either CD Recoleta or Libertad could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions at the match location could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can cause price fluctuations. Finally, any pre-match analysis from reputable sports analysts or unexpected announcements related to the game could shift the market’s probabilities and prices.