TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 5:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a professional Copa del Rey soccer match between CD Anaitasuna and Alaves, specifically whether either team wins within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. The market covers three possible results: a win for CD Anaitasuna, a win for Alaves, or a tie after regulation time.
The market resolves based on the result of the CD Anaitasuna vs Alaves professional Copa del Rey soccer game scheduled for October 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If CD Anaitasuna wins the match within regulation time, the "CD Anaitasuna" market resolves to Yes. If Alaves wins within regulation time, the "Alaves" market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the "Tie" market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price according to the rules. The markets exclusively consider the result after regulation time and do not account for outcomes determined in extra time or penalty shootouts.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to differing information and incentives. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the probability of Alaves winning. As more information becomes available – such as team news or injury reports – this market tends to adjust more rapidly than traditional sportsbooks. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, with this market sometimes offering more accurate predictions as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in Alaves winning in regulation time. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the event occurring. As more people buy contracts, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the likely outcome. The current price indicates what the market believes is the probability of Alaves winning.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the CD Anaitasuna vs Alaves match is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on whether Alaves wins the match within regulation time – excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. The official result, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will be used to determine the winning side and settle the contracts on Kalshi. The final score will be the determining factor.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either CD Anaitasuna or Alaves would likely cause price movement. Changes in team formations or tactical approaches announced by the managers could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day might also play a role, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style over the other. Finally, any significant public endorsements or analysis predicting a clear winner could impact the volume and price of this market.