TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Cavaliers vs. Magic
Volume:
$5,454,243
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the NBA game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic scheduled for March 11, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET at Orlando. Markets span moneyline, spreads, totals, player props (points, rebounds, assists), and first-half variants across both Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi spread markets contain logically contradictory resolution conditions that create impossible outcome scenarios. A single game result cannot simultaneously satisfy mutually exclusive Kalshi conditions (e.g., both Cleveland and Orlando win-by thresholds). Polymarket uses standard sportsbook spread logic with no contradictions.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's 11 spread-like markets (items 1-11) are fundamentally unresolvable due to overlapping and contradictory thresholds. Do not trade these markets. Polymarket's spread markets (items 56, 66, 86, 92, 96, 100, 102, 104, 108, 110, 112, 118) use standard logic and are resolvable. Rely exclusively on Polymarket for spread exposure.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Spread markets use arbitrary point thresholds that create logical contradictions. Example: Item 1 (Orlando wins by more than 10.5 = Yes) and Item 3 (Orlando wins by more than 4.5 = Yes) both resolve Yes for an 8-point Orlando win, but Item 2 (Cleveland wins by more than 2.5 = Yes) and Item 5 (Cleveland wins by more than 8.5 = Yes) create overlapping zones for Cleveland wins. A 5-point Cleveland win satisfies both Item 2 (Yes) and Item 3 (Yes, Orlando by 4.5), which is impossible. Quote: 'If Cleveland wins...by more than 2.5 points, then the market resolves to Yes' (Item 2) and 'If Orlando wins...by more than 4.5 points, then the market resolves to Yes' (Item 3).
- Polymarket: Spread markets use standard sportsbook logic with mutually exclusive outcomes. Example: Item 56 (Cavaliers -2.5) resolves Cavaliers if they win by 3+ points, otherwise Magic. Item 66 (Cavaliers -3.5) resolves Cavaliers if they win by 4+ points, otherwise Magic. Item 92 (Magic -1.5) resolves Magic if they win by 2+ points, otherwise Cavaliers. Each market has one clear winner per outcome. Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Cavaliers" if the Cavaliers win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Magic"' (Item 56).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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