TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 6:23 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Gima and Pedro Vives Marcos in the Catania, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Gima' if Sebastian Gima advances against Pedro Vives Marcos. This market will resolve to 'Pedro Vives Marcos' if Pedro Vives Marcos advances against Sebastian Gima. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Gima and Pedro Vives Marcos in the Catania, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Gima' if Sebastian Gima advances against Pedro Vives Marcos. This market will resolve to 'Pedro Vives Marcos' if Pedro Vives Marcos advances against Sebastian Gima. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own analysis and aim to balance their risk, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individuals. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the collective insight of prediction market participants. It is common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, as they are continuously updated by traders reacting to events. This can sometimes lead to more accurate predictions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to reflect the latest information and sentiment surrounding the Gima vs Vives Marcos match.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Gima vs Vives Marcos match as reported by official sports authorities. Any disputes or ambiguities will be resolved using widely accepted sources of sports data. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches to understand the factors that will determine the final outcome of this market. The platform will then distribute payouts accordingly.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or unexpected performance in prior matches could influence traders' beliefs. Public sentiment, as reflected in sports news and social media, can also play a role. Additionally, any official announcements related to the match schedule or venue could impact the market. Major upsets in related matches or significant shifts in expert analysis could also lead to price adjustments in this market as traders reassess the probabilities.