TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks rushing performance in an upcoming football game, with payouts scaling based on yardage achieved by individual players. Contracts reward higher yardage with progressively larger returns, creating a dynamic way to speculate on player performance.
Contracts pay out based on the rushing yards accumulated by designated players during the specified football game, using a cubic scaling formula that increases payouts non-linearly with yardage. Each Yes contract's payout is calculated by applying the formula floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000, where y equals the minimum of 200 and the product of 10 and the integer division of official rushing yards by 10. Payouts cap at $1.00 per Yes contract, with No contracts paying the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout. Negative rushing yards result in a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts. The structure ensures higher yardage yields disproportionately larger returns, with specific brackets defining payout tiers that align with the cubic function’s output.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information emerges – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – both sets of odds will adjust, but the speed and magnitude of those adjustments can vary. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities as an event approaches, especially when there's significant public interest.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring. Buyers are expressing a belief that the outcome is *more* likely than the market currently implies, while sellers believe it is *less* likely. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, constantly updating as new trades are executed. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time estimate of the event's probability.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team are major catalysts, as are changes in weather forecasts – inclement weather often leads to a more run-heavy offensive approach. News regarding coaching strategies or defensive matchups could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected changes in team performance during other games leading up to this event might also influence predictions. Any significant news related to player availability or game strategy has the potential to move this market considerably.