TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Carolina and Philadelphia. It focuses on how many times each designated player records a reception during the match. The outcome depends on the actual number of receptions each player achieves, influencing the value of corresponding contracts.
The event consists of three separate markets, each centered on a different player’s reception count during the Carolina vs Philadelphia game scheduled for October 18, 2026. For each market, Yes contracts pay $0.05 per reception recorded by the specified player, with the total payout capped at $1.00 and limited to a maximum of 20 receptions. The No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are scalar and proportional to the holder’s position size, meaning they scale based on the exact number of receptions. For instance, if a player records eight receptions, the Yes payout would be $0.40 and the No payout $0.60; eleven receptions would result in a Yes payout of $0.55 and a No payout of $0.45, while zero receptions would yield a Yes payout of $0.00 and a No payout of $1.00. All markets operate independently, with each resolving to Yes if the specified player’s receptions trigger the defined payout structure. Kalshi clarifies that it is not affiliated with the NFL, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the game. It's common to see prediction markets offer more accurate probabilities, especially closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific number of receptions, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust to changing expectations about player performance and game strategy. The current price reflects the collective forecast of all traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final reception totals for the Carolina vs Philadelphia game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL game statistics will be used to determine the total number of receptions achieved by all players in the game. The market will settle to the contract closest to the final, official reception count, as recorded by the NFL. Any disputes regarding the official statistics will be addressed according to Kalshi’s standard procedures.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either team would be significant catalysts, as they directly impact potential reception numbers. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that favor passing or running, could also shift expectations. Unexpected news regarding player matchups or coaching strategies might prompt traders to reassess their predictions. Finally, any late-breaking news about player availability or performance could lead to substantial price movements in this market before it resolves.