TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing yard milestones for quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between Carolina and Philadelphia. The outcome depends on whether specified players achieve certain yardage thresholds during the full match, including overtime periods.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but not after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to kickoff unless the player meets the required yardage, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and all statistics include overtime performance. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own research and insights. While sportsbooks may initially have different odds, they often adjust closer to prediction market prices as the event approaches, especially if there's significant action on a particular outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly in niche markets or when public opinion strongly deviates from the sportsbook’s initial assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yard ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions as the event draws nearer. Traders are constantly evaluating probabilities and expressing their views through their trading activity.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official passing yard statistics for the Carolina versus Philadelphia game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official passing yard total reported by the NFL. The exact resolution time will depend on the official release of these statistics, but it will occur shortly after the conclusion of the game. Traders should monitor official sources for confirmation of the final results to understand how their contracts will be settled.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would have a substantial impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence trading activity, as these conditions typically lead to lower passing yard totals. Late-breaking news about defensive strategies or changes in coaching personnel could also shift expectations. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could signal a shift in sentiment and cause prices to move rapidly.