TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 3:23 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a quarterback in a specific football game, focusing on how many times he successfully connects with his receivers. The outcome depends on whether he meets certain thresholds of completed passes during the match. These markets allow participants to speculate on the player's efficiency and the game's flow.
The event evaluates Bryce Young's passing completions in the Carolina vs Philadelphia Professional Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026, across three distinct thresholds: 17+, 22+, and 27+ completions. For each market, if Young achieves the specified number of completions or more, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly: if Young is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once Young takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined solely by the actual number of passing completions he records during the game. These provisions ensure that the resolution is based on actual performance once the player participates, while protecting against uncertainty when a player is present but does not play.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows traders to express their own informed opinions, potentially leading to odds that more accurately predict the outcome as new information becomes available. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply the collective insight of market participants. It’s common to see prediction markets move closer to the actual result faster than traditional betting markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing specific passing completion totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, analysis, and their own predictions, which influences the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a particular completion total is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a real-time assessment of the event’s probability.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing completion count for the Carolina vs Philadelphia game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The resolution will reflect the total number of passes successfully completed by both teams combined during the entirety of the game, including any overtime periods. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct completion total will receive a payout.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could affect passing game strategies and influence expectations. Late-breaking news about team tactics or coaching decisions could also move the market. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams’ offensive capabilities could drive trading activity and alter the prices in this market.