TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether specified participants achieve certain fantasy point thresholds. The outcomes depend on detailed statistical contributions across various categories such as passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive plays. All calculations follow a standardized fantasy scoring system applied uniformly to all participants.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defense units during the full game, including overtime, of the Carolina vs Philadelphia Pro Football match scheduled for Oct 18, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams contributions according to predefined rates—e.g., passing yards award 0.04 points per yard (+1 per 25 yards), touchdowns vary by position, and defensive units earn points for allowed points, turnovers, and scoring plays. Players who do not participate or lack a published fantasy-point value are treated as scoring zero. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at market expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied. Markets specifically track whether individual players (e.g., Jake Elliott, Dallas Goedert) or team defenses (e.g., PHI Eagles D/ST, CAR Panthers D/ST) exceed their designated fantasy-point thresholds.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance betting action and ensure profitability, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Examining these differences can reveal insights into where the crowd believes the value lies compared to professional oddsmakers, offering a unique perspective on the potential for various results.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive market, where prices can move quickly based on real-time demand and supply. The current price indicates the cost to purchase a contract that pays out if the specified outcome occurs.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official fantasy point totals for the Carolina vs Philadelphia game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point totals, as calculated by a major fantasy sports provider, will determine which contracts pay out. Traders will be able to see the final results reflected in their account balances shortly after the official results are released. This ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution process, based on widely accepted data sources for fantasy sports scoring.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Carolina or Philadelphia teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in player matchups, weather forecasts, or even late-breaking news about team strategies could also influence trading activity. Unexpected performance in other games that affect playoff standings or team motivation could also play a role. As the game approaches, any updates or insights shared by fantasy football analysts and experts could shift market sentiment and drive price movements.