TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Carolina or Philadelphia specifically within the final quarter of their scheduled game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that timeframe.
These markets resolve based solely on the point differential achieved by either team during the 4th quarter of the designated Carolina vs Philadelphia Pro Football game, with overtime points excluded from consideration. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold that the winning team's margin of victory must exceed for a 'Yes' resolution. Thresholds range from narrow margins like over 1.5 points up to substantial leads of over 10.5 points, covering both potential outcomes where either Carolina or Philadelphia emerges victorious. All markets exclusively evaluate performance during the standard 4th quarter period, with no consideration given to points scored in any other quarter or overtime periods. The resolving entity will compare the official game score at the end of the 4th quarter to determine if the winning team's point differential meets or exceeds the specified threshold for each respective market.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows participants to freely express their beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, biases, or simply the collective intelligence of prediction market traders. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to news and developments, potentially moving ahead of sportsbook lines as new insights emerge. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on the event’s potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the 4th quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. A higher price indicates a greater belief that the outcome will occur, while a lower price suggests less confidence. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual 4th quarter spread between Carolina and Philadelphia as reported by official sources. The market will determine which side of the spread ultimately prevailed. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about any potential factors that could influence the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could impact the perceived likelihood of different outcomes. Unexpected performance in earlier games, or shifts in public sentiment based on expert analysis, could also drive price fluctuations. Major announcements related to team dynamics or player availability will likely cause rapid adjustments in the market as traders react to the new information. Monitoring these factors is crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.