TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 3:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Carolina or Philadelphia specifically within the third quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter alone.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential achieved by either Carolina or Philadelphia during the third quarter of the game scheduled for October 18, 2026. For Carolina markets, resolution occurs if Carolina outscores Philadelphia by more than the specified margin (ranging from 1.5 to 10.5 points). For Philadelphia markets, resolution occurs if Philadelphia outscores Carolina by more than the specified margin (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points). Only points scored during the third quarter count toward determining the outcome, regardless of the overall game result. All markets operate independently, meaning each resolves based on its own threshold without reference to other markets.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than initial sportsbook lines. However, sportsbook odds are set by professionals and can be influenced by factors like public betting patterns and risk management. It’s common to see initial discrepancies between this market and sportsbook odds, with prediction markets sometimes incorporating information faster than traditional sportsbooks. Over time, the two may converge as more information becomes available and betting activity increases, but differences can persist due to varying market participants and motivations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 3rd quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s expectation for the 3rd quarter spread between Carolina and Philadelphia, and traders can use this information to inform their own predictions and trading strategies.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official 3rd quarter spread of the Carolina versus Philadelphia game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by the official game statistics, and the market will settle based on whether Philadelphia wins the 3rd quarter by more than 3.5 points, or Carolina wins or ties. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly the quarterback or key defensive players, could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing game, could also move the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, or even significant shifts in public sentiment, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market leading up to Oct 18, 2026.