TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 2:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team or category scores the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game. It includes possibilities for either team's defensive unit scoring on a turnover or no touchdown being scored at all before any offensive touchdown occurs.
The event determines whether the first touchdown of the Carolina vs Philadelphia professional football game scheduled for October 18, 2026, is scored by the Philadelphia Eagles defensive unit, the Carolina Panthers defensive unit, or if no touchdown is scored at all before any offensive touchdown. Each market resolves to Yes if its respective condition is met. If a defensive unit is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a defensive unit takes a snap, the market outcome depends on whether they score the first touchdown. Touchdowns scored on fake punts or offensive field goals do not count toward these markets. If no touchdowns are scored in the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds to attract balanced betting, incorporating a profit margin, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many traders. While there can be initial discrepancies, the odds here often converge towards a more accurate probability as the event approaches and more information is factored in. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before traditional sportsbooks, especially regarding player availability or strategic adjustments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each player to score the first touchdown, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that player achieving this outcome. As more traders buy a contract, the price increases, indicating higher confidence. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price is determined solely by supply and demand; there are no external factors influencing the pricing mechanism. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player who officially scores the first touchdown in the Carolina versus Philadelphia game, as recorded by official game statistics, will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official game results and will be verified against credible public sources. Any disputes regarding the outcome will be addressed according to Kalshi’s standard procedures.
Several factors could significantly shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or adjustments to team strategies could all influence trader sentiment. A key player being ruled out unexpectedly would likely cause a substantial price movement for their contract, while favorable weather conditions for a particular passing or running game could boost the odds of certain players. Late-breaking news about matchups or defensive schemes could also play a role in how this market evolves leading up to the game.