TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 3:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Carolina or Philadelphia in the first half of their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team to resolve positively.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the first half of the designated Carolina vs Philadelphia Pro Football game. Each market has a unique threshold: if Philadelphia wins by more than a specified number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), the corresponding 'Philadelphia wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Carolina wins by more than a specified number of points (also ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), the relevant 'Carolina wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the first half count toward these outcomes. No market resolves if the game is canceled, forfeited, or otherwise incomplete before the first half concludes. All markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately without affecting others.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, as they aggregate the wisdom of many traders rather than relying on a single bookmaker’s assessment. However, sportsbook odds often lead the prediction market initially, especially soon after the market opens. As more information becomes available and trading volume increases, this market often diverges from sportsbook lines as traders incorporate their own analysis and insights. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly for events with a lot of public interest.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the actual spread will be above or below the listed value. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the event gets, the more sensitive the price becomes to new information and trading activity. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new data and reflect the collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official result of the first half spread in the Carolina vs Philadelphia game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread determined by the game's governing body. Traders holding contracts on the winning side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their stake. The platform will verify the outcome and distribute payouts accordingly.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Carolina or Philadelphia teams would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game’s conditions, could also move the market. Furthermore, significant betting activity – a large influx of volume on one side – can also drive price changes. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis that alters public perception of the teams’ relative strengths could also impact the Carolina vs Philadelphia spread.