TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 11:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an American football game between two teams, focusing specifically on the margin of victory. It examines various possible score differences to determine the result, reflecting how betting markets can segment outcomes into ranges for more granular analysis.
The event resolves based on the point differential between Green Bay and Carolina in their full game, including overtime, scheduled for October 29, 2026. Markets are structured into seven distinct outcome categories: a tie (0-point differential), Green Bay winning by 1-6, 7-14, or 15+ points, and Carolina winning by 1-6, 7-14, or 15+ points. Each category resolves to 'Yes' if the actual game result matches its specified differential range. All markets are independent, meaning the occurrence of one outcome automatically invalidates all others. The governing body's official result determines resolution, and Kalshi disclaims any formal affiliation with the league or ownership of associated intellectual property.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to continuously update their beliefs based on new information. If a significant number of bettors believe the sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can trade in this market to express that view, potentially driving the price away from the sportsbook’s initial offering. This dynamic can lead to more accurate predictions, as the market aggregates diverse perspectives and reacts quickly to breaking news.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different winning margins. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that margin occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts for a specific margin, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by the collective intelligence of traders responding to news, analysis, and their own individual insights regarding the Carolina vs Green Bay game.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning margin will be determined by the official final score difference reported by the relevant sports league. The market will settle to the contract corresponding to the actual winning margin, or to the closest available margin if the actual result falls between contract boundaries. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Carolina or Green Bay teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also move the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in team strategy, as reported by credible sports news sources, could also influence trader behavior. Finally, late-breaking news about team morale or internal conflicts could also contribute to price movements in this market.