TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 10:16 PM EST
Kalshi
In an upcoming NFL matchup, analysts will watch whether either team's defense can score at least one touchdown through interception returns, fumble recoveries, or other special teams plays. The outcome depends purely on defensive scoring actions during the full game, including any overtime periods.
Both markets resolve based on whether the specified team's defense scores one or more touchdowns at any point during the full game, including overtime. A 'protected' designation applies: if the team participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the required touchdowns are scored. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and lining up for a penalized play without subsequent participation also does not count. Passing touchdowns do not count toward these markets, and the protection rule does not apply to team defense/special-teams selections. If a team never participates in any play, the market resolves to the fair price before the game start. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks often set lines to encourage balanced betting, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likely outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of confidence in a particular result. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to odds that diverge from those offered by traditional sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, the total number of touchdowns scored. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the aggregated belief of the participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the game approaches. The current price indicates the implied probability of a specific touchdown total.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of touchdowns scored in the Carolina vs Green Bay game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released. This allows for a clear and definitive settlement of all contracts.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. News regarding key player injuries for either the Carolina or Green Bay teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable or unfavorable for passing, could also shift expectations. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team dynamics might also cause movement. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create price fluctuations as traders react to new information or adjust their positions.