TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 12:09 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many times specific players catch the ball during a football game between two teams on a set date. Payouts increase with the number of successful catches, rewarding participants who accurately predict player performance.
Each market determines payouts based on the number of receptions a designated player achieves in the specified game. Yes contracts pay according to a tiered schedule that increases with each reception, up to a maximum payout of $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. The payout formula uses a cubic scaling function to calculate the precise amount, ensuring higher receptions yield progressively larger returns. No contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout, creating a zero-sum dynamic where total payouts for both sides sum to $1.00. All markets resolve to Yes once the game’s official reception statistics are confirmed.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the likelihood of different reception totals. If a significant discrepancy exists, it might indicate that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be perfectly accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total receptions. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time representation of expectations. The market aggregates the collective intelligence of its participants to determine the fair price for each possible reception total.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception total from the Carolina vs Green Bay game will be used to determine the winning contracts. It's important to note that the official game statistics will serve as the basis for resolution, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results following the game's completion to understand how this market will settle.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Carolina or Green Bay teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, especially if they are expected to impact the passing game, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about defensive strategies or coaching decisions could influence how traders assess the potential for receptions. Even general shifts in public sentiment or expert analysis could contribute to price fluctuations in this market.