TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 12:09 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Carolina and Green Bay, with payouts scaling based on the number of receiving yards each player accumulates. The structure incentivizes accurate prediction of player performance through tiered rewards tied directly to statistical outcomes.
Contracts pay out based on the receiving yards accumulated by designated players during the specified football game, using a cubic scaling formula to determine payouts. Each tier of 10 receiving yards corresponds to a specific monetary value, capped at $1.00 for Yes contracts and calculated as $1.00 minus the Yes payout for No contracts. The payout formula applies a cubic function to the yards achieved (capped at 200 yards), ensuring higher rewards for greater performance while maintaining a maximum payout limit. Negative yardage results in zero payout for Yes contracts. All markets resolve to Yes following payout determination, with official game statistics serving as the definitive measure.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available—like injury reports or weather forecasts—and as the event approaches, you may see the odds on Kalshi converge or diverge from sportsbook odds. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities than traditional betting markets, especially closer to the event date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage ranges for the Carolina vs Green Bay game. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that yardage range occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a particular outcome is likely, they will buy contracts representing that outcome, driving up the price. Conversely, if traders believe an outcome is unlikely, they will sell, lowering the price.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics for the Carolina vs Green Bay game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the actual receiving yardage achieved, determining which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders who correctly predicted the receiving yardage range will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be reported on Kalshi.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Carolina or Green Bay teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts—particularly conditions like heavy rain or strong winds—could also impact passing game strategies and, therefore, receiving yardage. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams' offensive capabilities could move the market. Major news events or late-breaking information about player matchups could also contribute to price movements on Kalshi.