TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 8:55 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting which Green Bay player will score the first touchdown in an upcoming football game against Carolina. Each market corresponds to a specific player, with outcomes determined by game performance and participation.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified Green Bay player scores the first touchdown of the game. If the player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a player takes a snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to whether that player scores the first touchdown. If no Green Bay touchdowns are scored during the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all player-specific markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all player markets, ensuring consistent resolution criteria for each participant.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe Green Bay is likely to score the first touchdown, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from sportsbook offerings. It's common to see differences, especially as new information emerges or public perception shifts closer to the event date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Green Bay will score the first touchdown. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of the 'yes' outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants, offering a real-time assessment of the likelihood of the event occurring.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine if Green Bay scored the first touchdown in the game against Carolina. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and play-by-play data, ensuring an objective and verifiable result. The outcome of this market will reflect the actual sequence of scoring plays during the game, as recorded by official sources.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key Green Bay players, such as injuries to their primary receivers or running backs, could significantly shift the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if adverse conditions are predicted, might also impact expectations for scoring. Furthermore, any updates on the Carolina defense, like a key defensive player being ruled out, could move the market. Public sentiment and betting trends in traditional sportsbooks could also indirectly influence trading activity on Kalshi.