TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 11:59 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on the margin of victory in an upcoming soccer match between Cardiff and Birmingham. Each market evaluates different goal-differential thresholds to determine the outcome, reflecting various levels of dominance by either team. The resolution depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The markets collectively assess the goal-differential by which either Cardiff or Birmingham may win the match. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if Cardiff wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, or if Birmingham wins by more than 1.5 goals, or by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based exclusively on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The governing body’s official match result is the sole determinant, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league or teams involved.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks typically set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust the price based on their own analysis and information. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into public sentiment and potential value bets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread in the Cardiff vs Birmingham match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs align with the eventual outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly efficient and informative market for forecasting the result.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined based on the actual result of the Cardiff vs Birmingham match, as reported by official sources. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand any potential factors that could influence the final outcome.
Several signals could move this market before Oct 24, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, tactical changes, or even weather conditions could impact trader sentiment and shift the price. Unexpected announcements about key players being unavailable, or a significant change in team performance in preceding matches, would likely cause movement. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could also indicate a shift in expectations and influence the market price. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.